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Conservation Letters

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Letters's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Blockages to biodiversity data access for conservation and sustainability management

Stephenson, P. J.; Unter, K. M. M.; Walls, J. L.; Moncada, J. A. A.; Sawyerr, L.; Londono Murcia, M. C.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Fumagalli, L.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.13.732021 medRxiv
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Governments, civil society organizations and businesses often lack the biodiversity data they need for decision-making and adaptive management, impacting their planning, reporting and performance. We explored the biodiversity data needs of such actors in Colombia, Ghana and Switzerland to identify factors affecting data availability and use. Responses to questionnaire surveys showed that the data types with the biggest gaps between user needs and access were progress on conservation or sustainability actions, species populations, habitat state and ecological risk. The most frequent data blockages related to inadequate resources and organizational capacity. Obstacles significantly associated with a lack of primary data included an absence of organizational biodiversity goals and monitoring systems. Problems accessing habitat quality and species abundance data were associated with data collection methods being unknown or unavailable. Businesses were more likely than other groups to need data on threats, perhaps reflecting the increasing importance of environmental risk to the corporate sector. Businesses are less likely to collect primary data or use secondary data and are significantly more likely to be unclear on what biodiversity indicators to use. Non-business organizations are significantly more likely to be unable to access data because of a lack of funding for data collection, analysis, and use. Our results highlight the need for stakeholders across sectors to work together to find common solutions to build and invest in monitoring capacity that unblocks the flow of biodiversity data.

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A prioritization strategy for protecting Conservation Imperatives Sites

Gosling, J.; Dinerstein, E.; Joshi, A. R.; Burgess, N. D.; Mellin, H.; Joppa, L.; Bingham, H. C.; McDermott-Long, O.; Upton, J.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.721008 medRxiv
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To prevent species extinctions, targeted action must focus on areas of threatened biodiversity facing intense human pressures. This objective is even more important in the run-up to 2030, the target date to conserve 30% of lands and waters globally. Conservation Imperatives (unprotected terrestrial sites that harbour rare, range-restricted, and threatened species) are critical to preventing imminent species losses. To prioritize among the 16,825 Conservation Imperatives Sites spanning 1.64 million km2, we ranked each site using a prioritization framework based on four criteria: number of threatened species per site; irreplaceability of the site; the proportion of an ecoregions remaining habitat contained in the site; and conversion pressure. Our approach prioritizes 1,667 sites representing 501,426 km2, or 0.37% of Earths terrestrial surface, most in need of urgent protection, with 87.34% of these sites occurring in 20 countries and in 250 ecoregions. This prioritization directly addresses the concern that protected areas must be targeted to protect endangered species, habitats and populations: 33.46% of the prioritized Conservation Imperatives Sites scored higher in irreplaceability than 90% of existing protected areas. Additionally, 51.53% are within 2.5 km2 of an existing protected area, making extending protection or restoring connectivity more feasible. Targeting conservation actions, especially in this small set of countries and ecoregions identified here, would contribute "high quality" areas for biodiversity as part of reaching the 30% coverage target by 2030.

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How well is Italian biodiversity represented in red lists and conservation legislation? Taxonomic biases, coverage gaps and the assessment-to-legislation bottleneck

Miccolis, E.; Rasotto, M. B.; De Pascale, F.; Pievani, T.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.730850 medRxiv
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Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.

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Small patches dominate the Natura 2000 network of protected areas in Europe

Beher, J.; Visconti, P.

2026-06-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.04.730078 medRxiv
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The Natura 2000 network for protected areas is one of Europes main tool to address the loss of Biodiversity. Voluntary commitments of all 27 Member States aim for an extension to 30% of the European land and sea area by 2030. Despite the substantial efforts towards improving declining species and habitats across the continent and the limited success in measured improvements of biodiversity trends in the protected areas, the potential issue of fragmentation and configuration of the documented Natura 2000 sites has not been analysed in depth. This study presents an analysis of the full Natura 2000 data set of terrestrial and marine protected areas in Europe, to which extent documented sites are split up into smaller fragments, how their spatial configuration and shape might mitigate or invite edge effects, and which edge effects might be expected based on the surrounding land cover and land use matrix. Our results show a substantial fragmentation of the network, with four times more individual patches than recorded sites, and 75% of these patches being smaller than 1 km2. Across four size categories between smaller than 1 km2 and larger than 100 km2, about a quarter of patches show a spatial configuration that is likely to cause substantial edge effects due to a suboptimal ratio between area and perimeter. At the same time, many of the smallest patches are surrounded by a large share of sealed surfaces and agricultural areas within a 500m radius. Considering fragmentation and edge effects in future reporting, monitoring and planning of additional designations and restoration activities could close an important gap in understanding causes for continuing declines of Europes biodiversity and highlight pathways to mitigate them.

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Revealing the Widespread Bias of Extinction Risk in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean

Farrant, M. G.; Liu, W. P. A.; McGeoch, M. A.

2026-04-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.23.720284 medRxiv
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Accelerating environmental change in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) necessitates robust extinction risk assessments to inform conservation priorities and track progress towards global biodiversity targets. Nevertheless, no systematic, region-wide baseline of extinction risk currently exists for tracking ASO biodiversity responses to ongoing change, a significant barrier to global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we present the first comprehensive synthesis of extinction risk knowledge spanning plants, animals, and fungi across the ASO, examining biases in current assessments, the distribution of Threatened species and their associated threats. In the absence of a complete regional species checklist, species were compiled from >6,800,000 occurrences and existing checklists, yielding 5,403 assessments representing 2,806 species using a data-inclusive workflow that increased available assessments by over three-fold. Assessments are heavily biased towards vertebrates (56% assessed), while invertebrates, despite their ecological prevalence, are markedly underrepresented (4% assessed). Among vertebrates, mammals have the highest proportion of Threatened species (35%), while ASO birds are disproportionately Threatened (27%) compared to the global average (12%) with the greatest threat for ASO species being Biological Resource Use. Despite more Threatened species in the sub-Antarctic islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, relative to assessment effort, these regions had fewer Threatened species than expected, indicating these areas may function as refugia. These pronounced assessment biases highlight the need for more balanced, representative, and data-inclusive extinction risk assessments to be able to effectively detect conservation status change. This work represents an important step in ensuring ASO representation in global biodiversity monitoring frameworks strengthening the capacity of these frameworks to detect, attribute, and respond to future biodiversity changes.

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The Biodiversity of Africa in the Digital Genomics Era: A Systematic Analysis of Institutional Gaps and Benefit-Sharing Trajectories under the Cali Fund.

Shema, Y.; Sinyangwe, S.; Ayodele, F. A.

2026-05-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725948 medRxiv
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BackgroundA structural governance failure sits at the intersection of international biodiversity law and the digital genomics revolution. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing (ABS) were designed to ensure that countries of biological origin share equitably in commercial benefits from their genetic resources. Critically, these instruments apply exclusively to non-human genetic resources: plants, animals, fungi, and microbiota. Human genetic resources are deliberately excluded from the CBD and Nagoya ABS framework and are governed separately through bioethics instruments, including the World Health Organization (WHO) framework and the Declaration of Helsinki. This study focuses on non-human digital sequence information (DSI), nucleotide and protein sequence data derived from non-human organisms deposited in open-access databases, which underpins industries generating over USD 1.56 trillion in annual revenue. Africa, hosting approximately 25% of global terrestrial species and nine of the worlds 36 biodiversity hotspots, provides a disproportionate share of the genetic resources from which non-human DSI is derived, yet receives negligible monetary returns because digitisation severs the traceability chain that ABS governance requires. Human genomic data is presented here solely as a secondary indicator of Africas broader infrastructure; it does not constitute the legal basis for Africas modelled allocation share under the Cali Fund. ObjectivesThis study systematically characterises (i) Africas non-human biodiversity endowment as the basis for Cali Fund claims; (ii) ABS governance readiness across 54 African Union (AU) member states; (iii) the commercial trajectories of non-human DSI-dependent industries and projected Cali Fund benefit-sharing flows; and (iv) Africas human genomic representation as a secondary infrastructure indicator, explicitly distinguished from the non-human DSI benefit-sharing argument. MethodsA structured evidence synthesis was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 reporting elements, where applicable to a secondary data analysis design. Literature was searched across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and official repositories of the CBD, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The search was restricted to January 2022 - April 2026 to capture post-Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) literature. A total of 412 records were identified before screening; 34 peer-reviewed articles and 19 institutional documents met all inclusion criteria. Quantitative Cali Fund scenario modelling used the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and KPMG (2024) non-human DSI sector revenue baseline (CBD/WGDSI/2/2/Add.2). The 12.5% net profit margin is a cross-sector proxy from that study; actual margins vary by sector. Africas modelled allocation share (20-25%) is the authors analytical construct based on Africas non-human species richness and hotspot share; it is not an internationally agreed formula. ResultsAfricas non-human biodiversity endowment is exceptional: 25% of terrestrial species, nine of 36 biodiversity hotspots, and the worlds second-largest tropical forest system. Non-human DSI from African genetic resources is a critical input to industries generating USD 1.56 trillion annually, yet Africa contributes a marginal and unmeasured fraction of International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration (INSDC) sequences. As a secondary indicator, 94.48% of genome-wide association study (GWAS) participants as of 2024 were of European ancestry (Corpas et al., 2025); this human genomic data is presented for contextual illustration only and is not the basis for Africas Cali Fund modelled allocation share. Zero African Union member states have enacted legislation explicitly covering non-human DSI in their ABS framework. Africas modelled allocation share ranges from USD 312 million (Scenario A, 20% weight) to USD 5.83 billion (Scenario C, 25% weight) annually. ConclusionsAfrica is among the most biologically rich continents on Earth for non-human life, yet structurally excluded from the benefit-sharing framework the CBD intended to create. The Cali Fund represents the first mechanism capable of correcting this at scale. Realising Africas modelled allocation share requires urgent legislative reform, institutional capacity investment, sequencing infrastructure development, and a coordinated African position at COP17 scheduled in Yerevan, October 2026.

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Exploring sources of uncertainty in the estimate of waterfowl harvest in the United Kingdom

Ellis, M. B.; Lewis, H. M.; Cameron, T. C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724812 medRxiv
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There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

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A sea full of measures: EU conservation goals for benthic habitats will require wide-ranging spatial measures

Probst, W. N.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724278 medRxiv
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The use of marine space by human activities is globally increasing, resulting in a competition with spatial management measures for marine conservation. Within the European Union (EU) these measures are currently implemented by the union member states to achieve the UN sustainable development goal (SDG) of protecting at least 10 % of the national marine waters. Further, the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Nature Restoration Regulation (NRL) are the two main legal means for the implementation of ambitious spatial conservation targets for benthic habitat types, which can range from 10 - 90 %. This study analysis how the targets of the MSFD and NRL are currently met in the German waters of the North Sea and which areas the full implementation of both legislations might require. A spatial optimisation tool ("prioritizr" in R) was used to identify optimised solutions for the conservation of up to 75 % of NRL benthic habitats. The current spatial conservation measures (which ban demersal trawling within certain zones of designated marine protected areas, MPA) are not sufficient to reach the targets of the MSFD and NRL. Extending the exclusion of demersal trawling to the entire area of the MPAs would achieve a sufficient coverage for all habitats except for offshore sand and mud habitats. These could be further protected, when including areas for offshore wind farms, where trawling is also banned. However, to date it is unclear, if and how these (or other human use) areas could be included into spatial conservation regimes, a debate that needs to be resolved to allow for the achievement of the ambitious MSFD and NRL targets.

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Biodiversity data portals as methodological filters for iNaturalist: how platform choice can shape biodiversity assessments

Edson, E.; Ellis-Soto, D.; Hill, A. P.; Johnson, R. F.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731923 medRxiv
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iNaturalist has rapidly grown to become one of the largest contributors of global biodiversity data, being widely used in academic research, to support and inform applied conservation, and to help develop policy indicators for decision makers. However, the availability of iNaturalist data varies based on the digital platform it is accessed from. Here, we assess whether the pathway used to access iNaturalist data from three commonly available biodiversity data sources: iNaturalist, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and ESRIs ArcGIS Online, alters occurrence record availability and downstream analyses for ecological inference. First, we investigate iNaturalist data availability on ArcGIS Online and find that the reduced field metadata for record location and obscuration information can lead to biased assumptions in the spatial ranges of sensitive species. Second, when assessing iNaturalist records available through GBIF, we find that restrictive Creative Commons observation licenses prevent an average of 26.1% of iNaturalist Research Grade records from being exported to GBIF, and this can lead to differences in environmental niche analysis when compared to datasets including all available research grade records. Understanding differences in platform licensing when integrating across biodiversity data repositories is another consideration for researchers and practitioners when conducting biodiversity assessments. Our results show that the pathway through which iNaturalist data are accessed can function as a methodological filter, potentially altering spatial coverage, the climatic conditions represented by occurrence datasets, and downstream ecological analysis.

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Biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae fishes

Costa, J. H. A. d.; Guedes, G. H. S.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.04.736495 medRxiv
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The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.

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Using spatial prioritization to navigate current and future tradeoffs when controlling invaders

Hobart, B. K.; Kramer, H. A.; Jenkins, J. M. A.; Lesmeister, D. B.; Davis, R. J.; Peery, M. Z.

2026-05-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.29.728801 medRxiv
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Controlling invasive species is a global conservation priority but is typically resource-limited, necessitating strategies to optimize control. Spatial prioritization methods can improve the efficiency of invader control by quantifying the benefits, costs, and risks of alternative intervention strategies. Yet prioritization designs are sensitive to the distinction between protecting native populations that are currently sympatric with invaders versus safeguarding presently allopatric native populations by preventing invader expansion. Gaining a better understanding of this distinction stands to improve our ability to prioritize the management of invaders whose distributions--and thus impacts on native species--are dynamic. We asked how prioritization designs addressing current versus future invader threats affected tradeoffs among focal species protection, biodiversity conservation, disturbance risk, and overlap with existing conservation infrastructure. As a case study, we spatially prioritized population control of invasive barred owls (Strix varia) in the northwestern US. We found that distinguishing between current versus future threats posed by barred owls to the native spotted owl (S. occidentalis) strongly mediated whether invader control stood to benefit native at-risk animal communities. Furthermore, this distinction also affected the degree to which population control would overlap with fire risk and federally protected forests, both of which plausibly affect the viability and success of conservation action. These results thus illustrate that deciding to prioritize the control of invaders based on their current versus future impacts on native species can dramatically affect the distribution and characteristics of high-priority areas for management. Our findings also directly inform control of barred owls in the northwestern US: we found that prioritizing future threats to spotted owls could protect at-risk amphibian communities from novel barred owl predation, but that high fire risk and minimal protected forest may complicate implementation. Thus, in both our system and more broadly, spatial prioritization methods are an important tool for quantitative, reproducible, and successful invader control.

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Global vertebrate hotspots

Farooq, H.; Harfoot, M.; Rahbek, C.; Visconti, P.; Geldmann, J.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724836 medRxiv
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Effective biodiversity conservation requires tools that can identify priority areas under growing human pressures. Building on the concept of global biodiversity hotspots, we present a transparent and repeatable approach to mapping conservation priorities using data for 33,604 species of terrestrial vertebrates from the IUCN Red List. This framework expands the taxonomic scope of previous efforts and integrates updated information on key human-driven threats to biodiversity. We identify that around 13% of Earths terrestrial surface qualifies as vertebrate conservation hotspots, often shaped by distinct combinations of species groups and threats. These results highlight the need for tailored, context-specific conservation strategies. By providing a robust method to guide spatial prioritization, our work supports more effective implementation of conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.

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Impact of Amazonian protected areas in preventing deforestation and carbon loss over four decades

Lopes Dias, L.; Ribas, L. G. d. S.; Ribeiro, B. R.; Geldmann, J.; Prado, F.; Soares, N.; De Marco, P.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.733928 medRxiv
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Native vegetation protection is a key strategy for delivering both biodiversity and climate benefits, and protected areas have been widely adopted to keep tropical biomes standing. Yet deforestation is driven by interrelated environmental and social factors, and the effectiveness of protected areas varies considerably across space. Here, we evaluated the impact of 802 protected and conserved areas in the Brazilian Amazon on preventing vegetation loss and avoiding carbon emissions over the past 40 years using statistical matching to address the location bias of protection. We found that protected areas were effective throughout the study period, reducing the probability of deforestation per km2 by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year. While the Amazon biome lost 14% of its native vegetation between 1986 and 2024, protected areas prevented the deforestation of 290,436 km2, nine times their actual internal loss. They also stored 45,336 Mt of carbon in 2016 (61% of the Amazon stock) and prevented the emission of 7,300 Mt of CO2 by 2024. Deforestation inside the areas and remoteness reduced their impact, while areas that were initially more preserved were more effective. Area size and age had no influence over impact once we analyzed the amount of avoided deforestation per size and age. Impact also varied across Brazilian states, highlighting the role of regional context. All three protection categories (conservation units, indigenous lands, and quilombola territories) showed a positive mean impact, indicating that each, in aggregate, contributes to reducing deforestation. These findings provide robust evidence of the substantial role of Amazonian protected areas in habitat conservation and climate mitigation, while underscoring that this contribution remains undervalued. We advocate for strategically expanding protection to areas of greatest potential impact, and for securing adequate funding to ensure protected areas can fulfill that potential.

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Correcting overprediction reduces the propagation of uncertainty from species distribution models into spatial conservation prioritization

Cavalcante, T.; Si-Moussi, S.; Tzivanopoulos, M.; Hoareau, M.; Thuiller, W.; Kujala, H.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726420 medRxiv
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Effective conservation planning increasingly relies on species distribution models (SDMs) to guide where actions deliver the greatest biodiversity benefits through spatial conservation prioritization. However, SDMs are inherently uncertain, and this uncertainty propagates through prioritization processes, affecting the identification of priority areas and influencing conservation decisions. Here, we evaluate whether correcting SDM overprediction reduces uncertainty propagation into spatial conservation prioritization. Using two large European datasets of vertebrates and invertebrates, we compared unconstrained SDMs with models corrected for overprediction through a Bayesian integration of occurrences, expert range maps, and habitat suitability. We found that overprediction correction reduced spatial and performance uncertainty, with uncertainty strongly structured by model and algorithm choice and amplified when overprediction was not corrected. Although no single modelling adjustment fully eliminates uncertainty propagation from SDMs into prioritization, we demonstrate that overprediction correction consistently reduces it across datasets, taxa, and modelling approaches, highlighting its importance for robust conservation planning.

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From guidelines to practice: Operational criteria for identifying old-growth forests in northern Europe

Monkkonen, M.; Brazaitis, G.; Brumelis, G.; Jonsson, B.-G.; Lohmus, A.; Makipaa, R.; Syrjanen, K.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.724771 medRxiv
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Primary and old-growth forests are globally valued for their biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural significance. The EU Biodiversity Strategy and EU Forest Strategy for 2030 require strict protection of remaining primary and old-growth forests, yet they cover only about 3% of EU forest area and remain highly threatened. The European Commissions guidelines define old-growth forests using three main indicators--native tree species, deadwood, and large/old trees--supported by five complementary indicators. Implementing these indicators for boreal and hemiboreal old-growth forests in northern Europe currently lack science-based operational criteria that meet EU legal standards. We provide recommendations for implementing European Commissions indicators with science-based operational criteria and thresholds to minimize misclassification and ensure cost-effective conservation. Key thresholds include native species dominance, [≥]5% deadwood of the total wood volume, and [≥]20 large/old trees per hectare. Additional guidance is offered for regeneration patterns, structural complexity, microhabitats, and indicator species, emphasizing that all indicators should be applied collectively.

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Global threat abatement potential for terrestrial vertebrates

Ridley, F. A.; Bennun, L.; Brooks, T. M.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Dales, M. W.; Hawkins, F.; Jimenez, R. R.; Macfarlane, N. B. W.; Mcgowan, P. J.; Starnes, T.; Tarr, S.; Turner, J. A.; Baisero, D.; Chanson, J.; Cox, N.; Menon, V.; Neam, K.; Pacifici, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Rodriguez, J. P.; Rondinini, C.; Mair, L.

2026-06-16 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731583 medRxiv
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1.AimThe Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric was developed to support setting and measuring progress towards science-based targets for species conservation, in alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The STAR metric quantifies the potential reduction in species global extinction risk achievable through actions to abate threats (START) and restore habitat (STARR). The STAR metric is used across multiple sectors to assess contributions to nature-positive species outcomes and implement action for biodiversity. Here we present a substantially enhanced global estimate of START for terrestrial vertebrates. Developed in response to user demand, this work integrates advancements in methodology and data quality, increased spatial resolution, and addition of reptile species. LocationGlobal Time PeriodCurrent Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates MethodsSTART was estimated at 1km2 resolution for 9,100 species of threatened and Near Threatened birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles, using IUCN Red List assessments (version 2025-1) and area of habitat (AOH) maps generated using an advanced data-driven methodology and satellite-derived land-cover data. AOH maps were validated using a two-stage protocol using species observation data. ResultsThe six countries with the highest estimated START scores, and therefore the largest individual potential to reduce global extinction risk via tackling threats nationally were Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia (each contributing over 5% of global estimated START). The threat with the greatest individual potential to reduce extinction risk was annual and perennial non-timber crops (21.2% of global START). Main conclusionsTargeted actions to tackle a few high-impact threats in a few discrete locations, and cumulative effort across multiple areas with lower individual potential, are both required to meaningfully reduce species extinction risk through threat abatement. This global scale estimation of START enables consistent scoping of conservation opportunity over large areas and provides the critical initial data to support planning and action.

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Biodiversity material remains where capacity and governance are strong, but taxonomic resources concentrate with geopolitical power

Moura, M. R.; Silva, R. H. P.; Pedrozo, M.; Guedes, J. J. M.; Uetz, P.; Moroti, M. d. T.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.734087 medRxiv
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AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.

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Tracks, Maps and Gaps: A Testable Research Definition for Critical Chondrichthyan Areas, European Atlantic Insights

Renn, C.; Ciotti, B. J.; Sims, D. W.; Edwards, A.; Turner, R. A.; Hosegood, P.; Sheehan, E. V.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722225 medRxiv
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Designing effective spatial management for chondrichthyans (sharks, skates, rays and chimaeras) requires incorporating critical areas, sites essential for population maintenance, such as reproductive and feeding areas. Yet most area-based measures have been developed without consideration of chondrichthyan habitat use. The Important Shark and Ray Area (ISRA) initiative has been pivotal in designating priority areas through a rigorous, consultative process. To complement this, our study offers researchers a testable definition for generating robust evidence to strengthen future critical area delineations and related management decisions. We define critical areas using three criteria: 1) relative frequency of use, (2) extended within-year occupancy and (3) repeated use across years. This framework enables objective comparison among candidate sites and is generalisable across different critical area types. The definition builds upon established early-life-stage habitat concepts and applies these to broader life-history functions. The utility of this framework is then demonstrated through a systematic review of contemporary peer-reviewed literature of critical chondrichthyan areas in the European Atlantic. The review highlighted 62 critical areas with Strong evidence and 41 areas of Moderate strength evidence, which informed the European Atlantic ISRA selection process. Research effort was concentrated in inshore areas, particularly around the British Isles and Portugal, with biases towards large, threatened and commercially valuable species, whilst chimaeras were notably underrepresented. Early-life stage areas were most frequently identified, whereas resting areas were rarely documented. Evidence patterns and biases are examined in the context of evolving critical area concepts to advance their development and improve the quality and breadth of future research. By outlining a testable definition, identifying key knowledge gaps, and proposing research and reporting guidelines, this work enhances the consistency, comparability, and spatial coverage of future chondrichthyan habitat research to support its application to conservation planning.

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The dispersal of released pheasants and the risk of their intrusion into English protected areas

Madden, J. R.; Sage, R. B.; Wilde, J. A.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722670 medRxiv
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Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

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Addressing Data Fragmentation in Biodiversity: A Workflow for integrated Species Distribution Models

Perrin, S. W.; Adjei, K. P.; Mostert, P.; Togunov, R. R.; Herfindal, I.; Topper, J. P.; Grytnes, J.-A.; Chipperfield, J.; O'Hara, R. B.; Finstad, A. G.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.721053 medRxiv
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AimA comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity is hindered by fragmented datasets, sampling biases, and inconsistent observation protocols. Here, we present a workflow that integrates disparate datasets to produce large scale maps of biodiversity metrics as a basis for management-relevant information tools. We use integrated species distribution modeling (iSDM) to account for sampling biases and disparate data collection techniques, taking advantage of the vast numbers of open datasets available in data aggregators like GBIF. LocationNorway (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) TaxonVascular plants MethodsThe workflow consists of four main steps: data acquisition, data integration, integrated species distribution modelling (iSDM), and the production of derived outputs. Input data include structured surveys, opportunistic observations, and environmental covariates. These are standardised and integrated into a point-processed based iSDM framework to produce species richness maps, associated uncertainties, and sampling effort maps. The outputs are further processed to identify biodiversity hotspots or to summarise species-environment relationships. The workflow used vascular plant data from Norway, combining occurrence-only and presence-absence datasets with environmental covariates. Outputs were generated at a spatial resolution of 500 x 500 meters, balancing accuracy, computational feasibility and relevance for management decisions. High-performance computing resources were utilized for model fitting and predictions. A subset of available data was used to validate the species richness maps. ResultsWe produced detailed maps of species richness, uncertainties and sampling intensity across Norways heterogeneous landscape, incorporating 1218 species in our final results. The species richness patterns highlight patterns consistent with previous mapping efforts. Validation showed an increase in model accuracy when compared to models which did not use an iSDM framework. The workflow highlights limitations in the infrastructure of the currently openly accessible data, particularly the need for more structured presence-absence datasets and standardized metadata. Main conclusionsThis study underscores the potential of workflows that integrate disparate datasets for biodiversity modeling. To maximize accuracy and utility, future efforts should focus on improving data standardization, the publication and collection of more structured data, and fostering data-sharing collaborations. Advances in the workflow itself, including optimising modelling covariates and integrating more comprehensive spatio-temporal aspects, will also increase the relevance of the outputs. These advances will increase our ability to estimate species richness with a precision and accuracy that can reliably inform conservation and management decisions.