Conservation Letters
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Letters's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Miccolis, E.; Rasotto, M. B.; De Pascale, F.; Pievani, T.
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Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.
Stephenson, P. J.; Unter, K. M. M.; Walls, J. L.; Moncada, J. A. A.; Sawyerr, L.; Londono Murcia, M. C.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Fumagalli, L.
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Governments, civil society organizations and businesses often lack the biodiversity data they need for decision-making and adaptive management, impacting their planning, reporting and performance. We explored the biodiversity data needs of such actors in Colombia, Ghana and Switzerland to identify factors affecting data availability and use. Responses to questionnaire surveys showed that the data types with the biggest gaps between user needs and access were progress on conservation or sustainability actions, species populations, habitat state and ecological risk. The most frequent data blockages related to inadequate resources and organizational capacity. Obstacles significantly associated with a lack of primary data included an absence of organizational biodiversity goals and monitoring systems. Problems accessing habitat quality and species abundance data were associated with data collection methods being unknown or unavailable. Businesses were more likely than other groups to need data on threats, perhaps reflecting the increasing importance of environmental risk to the corporate sector. Businesses are less likely to collect primary data or use secondary data and are significantly more likely to be unclear on what biodiversity indicators to use. Non-business organizations are significantly more likely to be unable to access data because of a lack of funding for data collection, analysis, and use. Our results highlight the need for stakeholders across sectors to work together to find common solutions to build and invest in monitoring capacity that unblocks the flow of biodiversity data.
McGeoch, M.; Mason, R. T.; Affleck, S.; Shipley, B.; Belmaker, J.; Ganglo, J. C.; Jetz, W.; Leihy, R.; Shrestha, B. B.; Solarz, W.; Winter, M.
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The number of species introduced outside of their historical ranges by human activity continues to rise. A subset of these species establishes, form self-sustaining populations, and some (invasive alien species) go on to cause substantial harm to biodiversity and ecosystems. Preventing new invasive alien species from establishing is the key focus of interventions, because post-establishment management is costly and often fails. However, it remains unclear how effective multilateral efforts have been in curbing the rise. Here we show that the emergence of new invasive alien species across countries is slowing, and trends are similarly negative across geographically diverse countries. Using data and modelling advances, we find a 35% reduction in the establishment of new invasive alien species over a policy-relevant 50-year time frame. The findings directly inform the assessment of progress for the invasive alien species target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and provide a global baseline for monitoring rates of invasive alien species establishment. Furthermore, the slowdown suggests that policy and investment over recent decades to prevent invasive alien species from entering and establishing in countries have had a positive effect.
Boakes, E. H.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Cierna, A.; Dunn, K.; Dimitrijevic, J.; Hawkins, F.; Jackson, O.; Le Marquand, J.; Mordue, S.; Gregory, R.
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Businesses are increasingly encouraged to disclose their nature-related dependencies, impacts, risks and opportunities. A common component of sustainability reporting is screening operational sites for ecologically sensitivity to identify locations for further evaluation and action. However, with 600+ biodiversity metrics available, selecting and interpreting appropriate metrics remains challenging for business. We developed a simple screening framework informed by the Taskforce for Nature-Related Financial Disclosures guidance, grouping eleven widely used global biodiversity metrics into four complementary [&prime]baskets[&prime], representing different aspects of biodiversity. We created hypothetical but realistic mining, onshore wind energy and agricultural companies, to assess how metric choice, buffer size, scoring approach and sensitivity thresholds influence screening outcomes. Our basket framework consistently identified similar high-priority sites across metric combinations, but site rankings varied with methodological choices. We recommend clearer guidance on metric selection and application, alongside greater transparency from business regarding assumptions, methods and limitations when screening sites for ecological sensitivity.
Madar, A. A.; Hadaaf, O. H.
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Small-scale fisheries provide essential coastal livelihoods in developing regions, yet they often confront severe institutional voids within fragile-state contexts. Adopting a social-ecological systems framework, this study addresses three sequential objectives: characterizing the contemporary institutional and demographic status of fishery cooperatives across the five South-Central Federal Member States in comparison to their late-1980s historical peak; ranking the socio-economic, infrastructural, regulatory, and environmental impediments to cooperative efficacy; and evaluating the contributions of these cooperatives to sustainable fisheries development. This investigation analyzes how fishery cooperatives act as institutional intermediaries to bolster economic resilience within the Somali coastal economy--a sector central to the National Transformation Plan, despite persistent regulatory fragmentation. Through semi-structured qualitative interviews with key informants--analyzed via reflexive thematic analysis and chi-square testing of age-cohort structure--the study finds that illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and inadequate post-harvest infrastructure are the principal constraints, whereas training, education, and community collaboration constitute the primary contributions. The results characterize these cooperatives as hybrid institutions that compensate for limited central-state capacity in remote coastal settlements while serving as intermediaries for the Federal Ministry of Fisheries and Blue Economy where co-management mandates are implemented. By extending the actor-community dimension of the SES framework to include age-cohort structure, this research demonstrates that clan-based reciprocal arrangements can serve as functional substitutes for Ostroms first design principle in contexts of persistent fragility. The study recommends multi-stakeholder partnerships to advance targeted capacity-building, financial literacy, and technological integration, and suggests future research into the post-harvest and retail sectors to examine the role of women in the Somali blue economy.
Marcus, R.; Shackelford, N.; Singh, G. G.
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Incorporating the complexities of climate change into conservation planning can be challenging. Climate change is projected to change the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, and change dynamics of extreme events of many climate variables globally. These changes will all have compounding effects on ecosystems worldwide, affecting species distributions, seasonal timings, and population dynamics. However, most recent climate-informed conservation planning frameworks only focus on changes in mean conditions, leaving out ecologically important information about seasonality and extreme events. Using a case study of estuaries in the Pacific Northwest, this research seeks to answer the question "How can the effects of climate change on estuaries best be modelled and described for practical use in ecological management?" To answer this question, we used downscaled climate projection data to estimate changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation. Applying extreme value theory to these projection data, we also projected changes in the magnitude of extremes in temperature and precipitation for estuaries in the region. Using descriptive statistics and open source data, our results present a novel, holistic method of understanding climate risk, including estimating extreme events, highlighting a key research gap in conservation planning. These results also highlight that trends in the mean, variability, and magnitude of climate extremes are not consistent with each other, further underscoring the importance of considering multiple dimensions of climate change together. Despite uncertainty given by climate models, the methods presented here provide a reasonable approach to plan for conservation management in the face of climate uncertainty.
Verschueren, S.; Braunisch, V.; Debons, V.; Arlettaz, R.
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Reliable population estimates are essential for wildlife management, yet monitoring schemes often do not match the administrative scale at which decisions are made. We illustrate this challenge using the Eurasian lynx in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, where official state monitoring is fragmented across three reference areas surveyed in different years. We analyzed three winters (2023-2026) of independent, canton-wide camera trap data, recording 899 independent lynx captures (27, 31 and 34 adults per winter). Lynx distribution and reproduction concentrated in the Northwest and connected to the thriving Pre-alpine populations. Density modelling for 2025/2026 estimated 37 independent lynx (95% CI: 26-52) on the whole cantonal territory, corresponding to a density of 1.09 (0.77-1.56) individuals per 100 km2. These estimates are substantially below the figures improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and conveyed by political authorities. Future lynx management decisions should be rooted in scientifically sound, scale-relevant information.
Heng, H. W. K.; Buenafe, K. C. V.; Restrepo, J.; Nisthar, D.; Amano, T.; Pilcher, N.; Chu, T. C.; Trong, D. N.; Ellis Arnett, R.; Fong, C.-L.; Herandarudewi, S. M. C.; Hoh, D. Z.; Long, S. L.; Ng, C. K. Y.; Panyawai, J.; Dunn, D. C.
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Evidence-based approaches are increasingly advocated and applied in conservation to provide reliable recommendations for management and policymaking. Although substantial efforts have been undertaken to generate ecological knowledge across languages and publication types, many syntheses and meta-analyses fail to include relevant literature sources; drawing into question their reliability. To assess the extent of biases resulting from ignoring grey literature and non-English publications, we reviewed and synthesised movement and migratory connectivity data for green turtles across Southeast Asia from multiple literature types and eight languages. We identified substantial losses in connectivity information, with at least half of all locations losing more than 88% of their connections, and shifts in demographic representation and sampling techniques when grey literature was excluded from the evidence base. The exclusion of non-English literature had a comparatively smaller impact. The regional connectivity network generated through this study highlights the need for holistic reviews to develop evidence bases to underpin transboundary management of migratory species. Ignoring grey literature and, potentially, regional languages in the development may lead to misallocation of limited management resources. Holistic reviews can further support the establishment of Important Areas for migratory species and inform how we meet and report on global biodiversity commitments.
Linero Triana, D.; Seavy, N. E.; Aparicio, S.; Carrillo-Restrepo, J. C.; Clay, R.; Crow, O.; De Luca, W. V.; Gates, R.; Jones, V.; Lesterhuis, A.; Michel, N. L.; Seager, M.; Toscano, M. G.; Valdes-Uribe, J.; Velasquez, M.; Velasquez-Tibata, J.
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Conserving migratory birds effectively requires full annual cycle strategies that identify where on-the-ground efforts can have the greatest impact. Here, we present a hemispheric spatial framework to identify priority areas for 112 migratory bird species across the Americas. Building on full annual cycle prioritizations, we defined finer-scale spatial planning units that reflect differences in migratory and congregational behaviors between shorebirds and landbirds. We compiled population data for each planning unit and focal species and applied conservation planning tools to design area-efficient portfolios of sites and landscapes that secure 10% of each species population within the Americas flyways. The resulting minimum area portfolios include 175 shorebird sites and 80 landbird landscapes optimized to meet the species-specific 10% representation targets across breeding, non-breeding, and passage seasons. We also identified a broader set of complementary solutions, ranked by an importance score, to provide decision-makers with flexible options for strategic resource allocation. This framework provides the scientific foundation for the Americas Flyways Initiative (AFI), which aims to catalyze investment in nature-based solutions and bird-friendly infrastructure to enhance the conservation of migratory birds and strengthen the resilience of the Americas flyways by 2050.
Kruger, L.; Adasme, L.; Montenegro, C.
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Chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus) in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc regions (CCAMLR subareas 48.1 and 48.2) have experienced substantial declines, yet uncertainty remains about regional variation and conservation priorities. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to 1,072 nest counts from 194 colonies (1970 to 2024) to quantify population trends, estimate probabilities of exceeding IUCN Red List thresholds, and assess compensation potential across four locations. The regional population declined by 41.9% over three generations, with 91.4% probability of exceeding the 30% Vulnerable threshold but only 9.2% probability of exceeding the 50% Endangered threshold. Declines were spatially heterogeneous: South Shetland Islands (40.2% of regional population) declined by 74.7% with near-certainty of exceeding both thresholds, while South Orkney Islands showed stability with high uncertainty (median -5%, 95% CI: -31.5% to +36.8%). The probability of increasing colonies compensating for regional losses was only 7%. These results support a three-zone conservation strategy for CCAMLR's proposed Marine Protected Area: urgent protection for the South Shetland Islands, enhanced monitoring for South Orkney and Elephant Islands, and adaptive management for the Antarctic Peninsula. Our uncertainty-quantified framework provides evidence-based guidance for balancing krill fishery access with predator protection in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean.
Kiribou, I. A. R.; Mucyo, J. P. S.; Kazaba, P. K.; Kamga, S. M.; Kuehl, H. S.; Junker, J.; Sasse, T.; Heinicke, S.
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Primates are frequent targets of international conservation efforts, due to their anthropological significance and function as biodiversity conservation flagship species. Afro-Palearctic migratory birds receive considerable conservation attention in their breeding habitats, but much less in their wintering areas. Good wintering habitat conditions are, however, crucial for long-term population viability. Integrating complementary conservation efforts for these taxa may provide substantial co-benefits. Here, we evaluate the spatial, ecological, and conservation congruence between 248 Afro-Palearctic migratory bird and 213 African primate species to identify potential synergies in intercontinental conservation efforts. The wintering areas of 218 migratory bird species overlap with primate ranges. Up to 125 Afro-Palearctic migratory bird species co-occur with at least one primate species locally and highest regional cross-taxon richness occurs in forest-savanna ecotones in West Africa and eastern DRC. Agriculture and hunting threaten both taxa (88-97% of primate and 59-70% of bird species). Several conservation interventions have demonstrated effectiveness for both taxa, particularly habitat protection and hunting reduction. We propose three policy priorities: strengthening cross-taxa monitoring within existing primate research infrastructure, improving the conservation evidence base in the African context, and creating financing synergies that allow conservation investments to simultaneously benefit both taxa.
CASTAGNEYROL, B.; Bah, S.; Bedessem, B.; de Groot, M.; Ennabih, A.
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Exotic pests and pathogens pose a major threat to forest ecosystems. Early detection of newly introduced organisms is critical for implementing effective eradication measures before they become established. Citizen science platforms have emerged as promising sources of biodiversity data for detecting invasive pests and pathogens, yet their integration into formal biosecurity surveillance remains limited. Using France as a case study, we surveyed 101 professionals involved in forest and urban tree management and pest surveillance to assess their knowledge of regulated tree pests and pathogens and their attitudes towards online citizen science platforms for biosecurity applications. We focused on ten focal species representing different regulatory statuses under EU legislation. We assessed the knowledge professionals have of these species and their regulatory status, and explored sources of variation in their opinions regarding the use of citizen science platforms as a tool for post-border biosecurity. Experts involved in mandatory surveillance of regulated organisms (SORE experts) demonstrated consistent knowledge of quarantine pests, whereas other professionals knowledge varied by species, with greater familiarity for non-quarantine, widely distributed pests. Half of respondents used citizen science platforms, predominantly to consult species distribution rather than to contribute observations. Professionals receptivity to citizen science increased significantly when species were perceived as easy to identify, but they expressed more confidence in citizen science for monitoring established pests than for the early detection of quarantine species. The survey reveals that while citizen science platforms are known and valued as information sources, they remain underutilized as mechanisms for sharing field observations, even among surveillance professionals.
Costa, J. H. A. d.; Guedes, G. H. S.
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The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.
Elias, M. A. M.; Soares, P. T.; Diniz-Filho, J. A. F.; de Almeida Jacomo, A. T.; Silveira, T. J.; Silveira, L.
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Understanding how scientific effort is distributed is essential for evaluating the evidence available to guide species conservation. We assessed the temporal, thematic, methodological, and spatial organization of jaguar (Panthera onca) research across the species range. Using 1,028 bibliographic records, we applied a metadata-based scope filter, defining a primary analytical corpus of 857 articles and an inclusive sensitivity corpus of 989. We analyzed publication growth from 1946-2024, author-keyword networks, high-specificity research-domain and methodological indicators, article-based spatial concentration across nine regions, and anthropogenic context using the Human Impact Index. Publication output increased strongly and nonlinearly, with the negative-binomial generalized additive model explaining 96% of deviance. Population and abundance, human-wildlife conflict and coexistence, and movement and connectivity were the most frequent research domains, whereas camera trapping was the most frequent methodological approach. Spatial analyses included 237 georeferenced terrestrial articles. Research was strongly concentrated in the Pantanal, Mesoamerica, and Atlantic Forest, but was underrepresented relative to range area in the Andes and Choco-Darien, Amazon, and Guiana Shield. These patterns were stable to the broader scope definition. Research concentration showed no strong association with region-wide anthropogenic pressure, although studies within several extensive regions tended to occur in more human-influenced portions than the regional average. Jaguar research therefore shows substantial growth and partial alignment with applied conservation challenges but remains geographically uneven. Expanding representative research in underrepresented regions, while maintaining work in threatened landscapes, would strengthen the evidence base for range-wide conservation planning and improve coordination among countries, institutions, and regional research traditions.
Lopes Dias, L.; Ribas, L. G. d. S.; Ribeiro, B. R.; Geldmann, J.; Prado, F.; Soares, N.; De Marco, P.
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Native vegetation protection is a key strategy for delivering both biodiversity and climate benefits, and protected areas have been widely adopted to keep tropical biomes standing. Yet deforestation is driven by interrelated environmental and social factors, and the effectiveness of protected areas varies considerably across space. Here, we evaluated the impact of 802 protected and conserved areas in the Brazilian Amazon on preventing vegetation loss and avoiding carbon emissions over the past 40 years using statistical matching to address the location bias of protection. We found that protected areas were effective throughout the study period, reducing the probability of deforestation per km2 by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year. While the Amazon biome lost 14% of its native vegetation between 1986 and 2024, protected areas prevented the deforestation of 290,436 km2, nine times their actual internal loss. They also stored 45,336 Mt of carbon in 2016 (61% of the Amazon stock) and prevented the emission of 7,300 Mt of CO2 by 2024. Deforestation inside the areas and remoteness reduced their impact, while areas that were initially more preserved were more effective. Area size and age had no influence over impact once we analyzed the amount of avoided deforestation per size and age. Impact also varied across Brazilian states, highlighting the role of regional context. All three protection categories (conservation units, indigenous lands, and quilombola territories) showed a positive mean impact, indicating that each, in aggregate, contributes to reducing deforestation. These findings provide robust evidence of the substantial role of Amazonian protected areas in habitat conservation and climate mitigation, while underscoring that this contribution remains undervalued. We advocate for strategically expanding protection to areas of greatest potential impact, and for securing adequate funding to ensure protected areas can fulfill that potential.
Kouakou, J.-L.; Assemien Cyrille-Joseph, A.; Alphonse, Y. K.; Ouattara, A.; Diarrassouba, A.; Gonedele-Bi, S.
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The accelerated loss of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa threatens the functioning of tropical ecosystems. In Cote dIvoire, the Comoe National Park (PNCOMOE), a Sudano-Guinean savannah, and the Tai National Park (PNTAI), a dense rainforest, both UNESCO World Heritage Sites, are home to fauna assemblages of global importance, whose long-term resilience remains insufficiently quantified. This study assesses and compares, over a decade (2014-2025), the functional stability of vertebrate communities in these two contrasting ecosystems, using nine metrics covering resistance, invariance, persistence, interspecific synchrony, Tilmans stability, Jacobian resilience and a Composite Stability Index (CSI). Abundance data for 107 vertebrate species were collected via foot transects at PNTAI and aerial surveys at PNCOMOE. The stability metrics were calculated using the R package estar, integrated with an alpha diversity analysis (Shannon H', species richness S, Pielous evenness J') and a Jacobian spectral analysis within a multidimensional ecological assessment. PNTAI (0.708) exhibits significantly higher alpha diversity (H' = 2.82; S = 55.7 taxa) and community resilience 4.6 times higher than in the PNCOMOE (0.153). Its interspecific asynchrony index (0.504) reveals a strong portfolio effect, absent in the PNCOMOE (0.232). In contrast, PNCOMOE exhibits higher temporal invariance (0.382 versus 0.116) and Tilman stability (0.276 versus 0.152), reflecting more predictable dynamics. The overall ICS favours the PNTAI (0.484) and (0.370). The Jacobian analysis detects local instability in both parks (Re({lambda}max) = 5.58 at the PNTAI; 3.73 at the PNCOMOE). The two parks exhibit distinct yet complementary stability architectures: PNTAI relies on dynamic stability based on resilience and interspecific compensation, whilst PNCOMOE demonstrates conservative stability through temporal regularity. The absence of calculable resilience at PNCOMOE suggests a potential crossing of a functional degradation threshold, arguing for urgent restoration interventions and differentiated conservation strategies, tailored to the resilience mechanisms specific to each ecosystem.
Dechmann, D. K. N.; Akre, K. L.; de Wit, L. A.; Kafkaletou Diez, A. G. G.; Mandl, I.; Makridou, Z.; Michael, K.; O'Mara, M. T.; Papastylianou, K.; Wikelski, M.; Frick, W. F.
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Preventing extirpations requires timely detection of rapid declines and immediate conservation response. Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) are globally listed as Least Concern, but their genetically isolated population in Cyprus is Critically Endangered. We document a severe ongoing decline of the Cypriot R. aegyptiacus population observed during standardized counts at major roost sites. April 2024 counts at four principal roosts recorded 4633 bats. Surveys in December 2025 documented 554 individuals across the same sites. April 2026 counts revealed a 90.1% decline since April 2024. Additionally, we found numerous dead bats at three roosts, and residents across the island reported dead bats, suggesting an acute mortality event beginning in early 2025. The cause remains unknown. Given the magnitude and pace of decline, this population potentially faces imminent extirpation. We recommend immediate action to protect roosting and foraging habitat, along with coordinated diagnostics, expedited research permits, standardized monitoring, and technical collaboration to identify and mitigate underlying causes of high mortality.
Gui, S.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, J. A.; Zhu, Z.; Goncalves-Souza, T.; Ombadi, M.; Liu, Y.; Tang, J.; Reich, P. B.; Goldstein, B. P.; Zhu, K.
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Intensifying fire regimes threaten forests globally, but the risk of persistent post-fire forest loss and its potential mitigation remains poorly quantified. We analyzed millions of wildfires worldwide from 2001 to 2024 and tracked recovery in satellite-observed forest structure and ecosystem function. Post-fire persistent forest loss, indicated by modeled non-recovery to pre-fire conditions over decadal timescales, affected 57.1% of burned forest area globally since 2001, with hotspots in Pacific temperate and southern boreal forests. We then identified 'crucial fires' as events exceeding a stringent modeled-risk probability threshold for persistent structural or functional non-recovery, with fire severity strongly predicting this loss. This severity dependence revealed a management pathway, as locations with prior low-severity fire experienced lower severity in subsequent wildfires and had lower modeled probability of becoming crucial. Under a model-based counterfactual scenario, applying the estimated severity attenuation was associated with a 7.6% reduction; the top 1% of road-accessible areas accounted for 35% of this reduction. These results provide a global framework for identifying where wildfire threatens forest resistance and where targeted low-severity fire management like prescribed fire might be used to combat global forest loss.
Chopra, M.; Salguero-Gomez, R.; Stevens, G. M. W.; Rowlands, G.; Karnad, D.; T., M.; Fernando, D.; Davis, K. J.
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As anthropogenic threats have intensified over the past 500 years, we find ourselves in the midst of a sixth mass extinction, with continued losses of biodiversity threatening ecosystem stability. This biodiversity loss has caused species extinctions across taxa, and placed several others at high risk of functional extinction. These disturbance-driven impacts represent one of the most acute biodiversity crises facing global marine systems. Species exhibiting slow life histories characteristically have low resilience to disturbance. Here, we assess the risk of functional extinction and identify policy pathways for population recovery of the slow-living, Critically Endangered elasmobranch, the spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular). We develop a stochastic, state-structured Integral Projection Model (IPM) parameterised with demographic data collected from fishery landings data in India, the world's largest mobulid fishery, and supplemented with data on vital rates from published literature. Using the IPM, we estimate that the population is declining at approximately 12% annually, experiencing substantial limiting pressure from fisheries overexploitation and failing to approach its biological maximum growth potential. Our results indicate that populations of M. mobular will be at high risk of functional extinction if 'business as usual' harvest scenario persists for another decade. We further show that long-term population recovery is only possible if survival increases significantly across all size classes, especially among large reproductive females, alongside a concurrent increase in fecundity. We conclude that no single policy measure is sufficient to recover population of M. mobular along the southeastern coast of India. Instead, combined protection through maximum bycatch mitigation and protection of nursery areas in no-take zones will be required for population recovery. This research demonstrates that recovery of overexploited populations often requires integrated resource management across life stages, and that the Critically Endangered M. mobular warrants urgent conservation action to avoid functional extinction.
Moura, M. R.; Silva, R. H. P.; Pedrozo, M.; Guedes, J. J. M.; Uetz, P.; Moroti, M. d. T.
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AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.